Global inflation is running at its fastest pace in decades this year as high and persistently volatile commodity prices, coupled with the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on slowing global growth, have significantly slowed economic growth and the risk of global stagflation has been mounting.
Global inflation is expected to reach its highest level in more than 30 years, according to research from Citibank. The next six months will be key for central banks to beat inflation as slower growth and higher central bank interest rates are enough to bring it back to target over time.
Stagflation risk 'imminent'
At present, many international organizations and economists believe that the global economy will face the dilemma of high inflation and low growth in the coming years.
The World Bank had cut its forecast for global growth in 2022 to 2.9% and warned of the risk of "stagflation". Growth is also expected to hover around 3% from 2023 to 2024.
The IMF cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2022 to 3.2 percent from 3.6 percent in April and forecast world inflation of 8.3 percent in 2022.
Seth Carpenter, chief global economist at Morgan Stanley, said recession clouds were already hanging over the global economy, with the US in a "technical" recession and the eurozone suffering from an energy crisis.
Sara Johnson, head of global economic research at S&P, expects real global economic growth to slow from 5.8% in 2021 to 2.7% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023. Once inflation falls and financial conditions improve, global growth is expected to return to 3% in 2024.
Citibank's Nathan Sheets team of analysts said in a report that the global economy could experience a stagflation event similar to the one in the late 1970s and early 1980s, and the bank expects a 50% chance of a full-blown stagflation.
Citibank cut its forecast for global growth to 2.9% in 2022 from 4.1% at the end of last year, and 2.2% in 2023 from 3.1% at the end of last year. At the same time, global inflation expectations were significantly revised upward, with inflation projected to be 7.1 percent in 2022, up 3.7 percentage points from the estimate at the end of last year, and 5.4 percent in 2023, up 2.8 percentage points, well above the average in recent decades.
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Analysis and forecast of the market size of PCR diagnostic industry
Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) is a nucleic acid synthesis technology that uses the principle of DNA double-strand replication to replicate specific DNA fragments in vitro. With this technology, the detection equipment can amplify the target gene in a large number in a short time, expanding the target gene fragment to the order of millions to billions, thus achieving high sensitivity detection. At present, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnosis of infectious diseases such as hepatitis, venereal disease, intestinal respiratory disease and tumor single gene detection is an important application field. In 2020, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) diagnostic technology was identified as the "gold standard" for COVID-19 diagnosis due to its high sensitivity and accuracy.
China's PCR diagnostic market is developing rapidly, with the market size growing rapidly from about RMB 2.37 billion in 2015 to about RMB 5.93 billion in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate of 25.8%. China's PCR industry experienced explosive growth due to the huge demand for testing caused by the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, and the market size of China's PCR diagnostic industry exceeded 10 billion yuan in 2020. With the introduction of a large number of PCR diagnostic instruments, the PCR diagnostic industry will enter a new stage of development. It is expected that the PCR diagnostic industry will maintain a double-digit growth rate, and the market size of the PCR diagnostic industry will reach about 23.42 billion yuan in 2030 based on the factory price, and the cagR will reach about 13.3% from 2019 to 2030.
Market Demand of the polymerase chain reaction test
The DNA/RNA Extraction Kit market and other polymerase chain reaction test s are projected to grow at a CAGR of 8.26% during the forecast period 2022-2027.
The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted the polymerase chain reaction test market for a short time due to restrictions on different business and research activities for polymerase chain reaction test s. In addition, diagnostic tests for other diseases and medical conditions in hospitals and other clinical diagnostic facilities have been affected as COVID-19 has led to fewer patients taking tests. However, the high rate of COVID-19 infection and research activities are undertaken by major companies in the field of sequencing to expand their understanding of the virus and its origins, as well as molecular diagnostics of the SARS-COV-2 virus, have led to the development and launch of many DNA - and RNA-BASED COVID-19 kits, The kits proved so important that they were in great demand.
Market drivers for the polymerase chain reaction test
The growth of the DNA/RNA extraction kit market is primarily driven by increased investment in R&D activities in different areas, including molecular diagnostics for different chronic and infectious diseases. For example, the US spent $842 billion on R&D activities in 2020, followed by China at $664 billion, according to the ORGANISATION for Economic Co-operation and Development. Technological advances worldwide, new product launches by major market players, and an increase in cancer cases are also likely to complement the growth of the markets under study.
Other factors, such as increased demand for automation of DNA/RNA extraction technologies, new user-friendly and easy extraction kits, and DNA/RNA for analysis of new diseases causing microorganisms, are expected to drive DNA/RNA growth. RNA Extraction Kit market during the forecast period. Therefore, low awareness and availability of the kit and low market penetration in less developed and developing regions around the world are the major factors limiting the growth of the DNA/RNA extraction kit market.
North America is expected to dominate the global polymerase chain reaction test market during the forecast period
North America, which holds a major share in the polymerase chain reaction test market, is expected to show a similar trend during the forecast period, mainly due to the high level of R&D activity in the region and the presence of major market players in the region constantly developing their products for the markets studied.
In the region, the US is expected to take a major share of the DNA/RNA extraction kit market due to heavy investment in R&D by government and private entities, increased demand for polymerase chain reaction test s, and the rising prevalence of chronic diseases.
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